This primer provides a synthesis of guidance specifically aimed at carrying out Theory of Change in processes in a GEF context. The document is part of a growing suite of STAP documents intended to support the design of interventions within GEF&#8217;s goal to apply leading practices to deliver transformational change. The primer provides a brief overview of the origin of Theory of Change; defines what is a Theory of Change; explains why developing and carrying out a Theory of Changes is necessary; describes when to do a Theory of Change; and, provides a succinct guide on how to do a Theory of Change. The primer also makes a distinction between Theory of Changes for projects and programs &#8211; given their distinct cycles. In addition, the document provides, examples of Theory of Change, and sources of further information. The primer is accompanied by a short literature review and annotated bibliography. The primer and its supplement are listed below.

This primer provides a synthesis of guidance specifically aimed at carrying out Theory of Change in processes in a GEF context.

Theory of Change in the context of Global Environment Facility

theoryofchange_workbook_en_final_2022_508c_1

theoryofchange_workbook_2022_vn_508c_2

powerpoint_template_toc_workbook_2022

While over time theories of change have become synonymous with simple if/then statements, a strong theory of change should actually be a much more detailed, context-specific articulation of how we *theorize* change will happen under a program. Theories of change should articulate:
<ul>
<li>Outcomes: What is the change we are trying to achieve?</li>
<li>Entry points: Where is there momentum to create that change?</li>
<li>Interventions: How will we achieve the change?</li>
<li>Assumptions: Why do we think this will work?</li>
</ul>
This workbook helps stakeholders work through the process of developing strong theories of change that answers the above questions. Resources include the workbook in Google Doc format, Microsoft Word format (both English and Vietnamese), and an optional PowerPoint template that can be used and adjusted when facilitating the theory of change development process.
<img loading="lazy" decoding="async" class="alignnone wp-image-6099 size-large" src="https://content.changeroo.com/wp-content/uploads/Academy/2023/11/theory_of_change_model_horz_m2-1024x597.png" alt="" width="750" height="437" srcset="https://content.changeroo.com/wp-content/uploads/Academy/2023/11/theory_of_change_model_horz_m2-1024x597.png 1024w, https://content.changeroo.com/wp-content/uploads/Academy/2023/11/theory_of_change_model_horz_m2-300x175.png 300w, https://content.changeroo.com/wp-content/uploads/Academy/2023/11/theory_of_change_model_horz_m2-768x448.png 768w, https://content.changeroo.com/wp-content/uploads/Academy/2023/11/theory_of_change_model_horz_m2.png 1500w" sizes="auto, (max-width: 750px) 100vw, 750px" />
A strong theory of change process leads to stronger theory of change products, which include:
<ul>
<li>the theory of change narrative: a 1-3 page description of the context, entry points within the context to enable change to happen, ultimate outcomes that will result from interventions, and assumptions that must hold for the theory of change to work and</li>
<li>a logic model: a visual representation of the theory of change narrative.</li>
</ul>
Teams should invest in a more robust and collaborative theory of change development process because it:
<ul>
<li>creates a shared understanding of the development challenge and how it can be addressed</li>
<li>sets direction towards a shared desired future state and clear measures of success</li>
<li>identifies interventions that are most likely to succeed based on the local context</li>
<li>brings local stakeholders into the process to establish local ownership</li>
<li>results in stronger designs based on the above, and</li>
<li>can be used as a management tool during implementation to reflect on progress and adjust implementation accordingly.</li>
</ul>

The Theory of Change manual from USAID.

USAID Theory of Change Workbook: A Step-by-Step Process for Developing or Strengthening Theories of Change

A good program ToC builds upon mid-level theories. This brief outlines ten steps for building and using middle-level theories.
<ol>
<li>Specify the overall middle-level theory of change</li>
<li>Produce a step-by-step diagram</li>
<li>Describe the causal principles at work at each stage</li>
<li>Add support factors to the diagram</li>
<li>Add derailers to the diagram</li>
<li>Add safeguards against the derailers to the diagram</li>
<li>Allow for causal loops</li>
<li>Specify the expected range of application</li>
<li>Draw implications for monitoring and for evaluation questions and indicators</li>
<li>Draw implications for future programme design</li>
</ol>
On the CEDIL website you can also find two <a href="https://cedilprogramme.org/events/cedil-internal-talks/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">presentations</a> on the use of middle range theory.

A good program ToC builds upon mid-level theories. This brief outlines ten steps for building and using middle-level theories.