Throughout our work and personal lives we have aims and ideas about how to achieve them, but we rarely take the time to think these through, scrutinise and articulate them. This is what a theory of change process does. It encourages us to reflect on our aims and plans, to discuss them with others and to make them explicit.
We see theory of change as the foundation of charity strategy, evaluation and communication.
Our existing guidance, published in 2014, is one of our most widely read publications. Since then, we have learnt a lot about where our thinking works well, and where it falls short. This new guide is a ten step handbook to creating a theory of change, built on many years of developing them for charities and funders. It focusses on the basics, our core approach. It gives you the information you need to do any theory of change and is directly applicable to smaller projects and charitable services.

This guide is a ten step handbook to creating a theory of change, built on many years of developing them for charities and funders. It focusses on the basics, the core approach of NPC Consulting in the UK.

Theory of change in ten steps

A good program ToC builds upon mid-level theories. This brief outlines ten steps for building and using middle-level theories.
<ol>
<li>Specify the overall middle-level theory of change</li>
<li>Produce a step-by-step diagram</li>
<li>Describe the causal principles at work at each stage</li>
<li>Add support factors to the diagram</li>
<li>Add derailers to the diagram</li>
<li>Add safeguards against the derailers to the diagram</li>
<li>Allow for causal loops</li>
<li>Specify the expected range of application</li>
<li>Draw implications for monitoring and for evaluation questions and indicators</li>
<li>Draw implications for future programme design</li>
</ol>
On the CEDIL website you can also find two <a href="https://cedilprogramme.org/events/cedil-internal-talks/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">presentations</a> on the use of middle range theory.

A good program ToC builds upon mid-level theories. This brief outlines ten steps for building and using middle-level theories.

Using middle-level theory to improve programme and evaluation design

This primer provides a synthesis of guidance specifically aimed at carrying out Theory of Change in processes in a GEF context. The document is part of a growing suite of STAP documents intended to support the design of interventions within GEF&#8217;s goal to apply leading practices to deliver transformational change. The primer provides a brief overview of the origin of Theory of Change; defines what is a Theory of Change; explains why developing and carrying out a Theory of Changes is necessary; describes when to do a Theory of Change; and, provides a succinct guide on how to do a Theory of Change. The primer also makes a distinction between Theory of Changes for projects and programs &#8211; given their distinct cycles. In addition, the document provides, examples of Theory of Change, and sources of further information. The primer is accompanied by a short literature review and annotated bibliography. The primer and its supplement are listed below.

This primer provides a synthesis of guidance specifically aimed at carrying out Theory of Change in processes in a GEF context.