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A new report on Theory of Change (ToC) and its use in International development has just been produced by Isabel Vogel. The report was commissioned by the DFID evaluation division and considers the current uses and definitions of ToC.
A methodology which maps the assumptions which inform planned interventions within all stages of an initiative, ToC is increasingly regarded as an essential tool in designing and appreciating the complex network of factors which influence project outcomes.
Information was gathered through interviews with staff from 25 different development organisations, nine donor agencies, seven international NGOs and nine research and training organisations. The data was then assessed and evaluated within the review, structured around nine topics:
<ol>
<li>Who is using theory of change in international development?</li>
<li>What is ‘theory of change thinking’ in practice?</li>
<li>Why are the ‘assumptions’ so important in theory of change?</li>
<li>What makes a good quality theory of change process and product?</li>
<li>Representing theories of change</li>
<li>Using evidence to support a theory of change process?</li>
<li>Using theory of change thinking to support evaluation, impact assessment and learning</li>
<li>Using theory of change to address complex aspects of programmes and emergent strategy</li>
<li>Embedding on-going theory of change thinking and learning</li>
</ol>
The review considers the practical aspects of ToC implementation; the purpose of the report being, to develop a more consistent approach within DFID to a concept which is gaining in reputation and use within the international development community.
Vogel acknowledges that lack of consensus exists around the specific definition of ToC. The review highlights the necessity for flexibility in developing a successful ToC. Through consideration of different approaches, outlining examples of ToC in practice within the appendix, Vogel identifies and draws together a short list of the core elements, generally agreed upon as essential requirements for any discussion centred on theory of change:
<ol>
<li>Context &#8211; social, political and environmental conditions, existing actors able to influence change</li>
<li>Long-term change- what is it and for whom?</li>
<li>Process/sequence of change anticipated</li>
<li>Assumptions on how change may occur, in order to develop appropriate strategies</li>
<li>Diagram and narrative summary to effectively capture the outcomes of the discussion</li>
</ol>
Using these as points of reference, the review examines the most effective means of establishing a logical pathway to desired outcomes using the ToC model. Vogel highlights the need to establish ToC as an ongoing process developed alongside all phases of a programme from inception to impact evaluation and emphasises that assumptions should be made explicit within the organising framework of a project.
ToC, as the review makes clear, has the potential to provide an invaluable framework for discussion and critical thinking surrounding project implementation and evaluation. It allows for subjective analysis to be discussed and represented, through diagrams and visuals, which can in turn support more dynamic exchange between policy actors, grantees and donors.

A review on ToC in practice based on interviews with staff from 25 different development organisations, nine donor agencies, seven international NGOs and nine research and training organisations.

Review of the use of ‘Theory of Change’ in international development

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The term “Theory of Change” (ToC) is understood and practiced in different ways: from a more structured and semi-linear planning tool used in the context of a development project to a more flexible and emergent process thinking logic applied to social change processes. This means that the application of ToC goes from an instrumental use on one end of the scale to a transformational practice on the other end. In practice, it will often be a mix within this range, with different and adapted purposes for each application. Before engaging with a ToC process, being clear about purpose is crucial. From the group’s collective experience with Theory of Change in different contexts, three generic, complementary purposes have emerged.
Before engaging with a ToC process, being clear about purpose is crucial. From the group’s collective experience with Theory of Change in different contexts, three generic, complementary purposes have emerged. The prominence of these purposes in a particular ToC process will strongly shape the topics, sessions, facilitation and effects.

This article presents three generic, complementary purposes of ToCs.

What is the purpose of a Theory of Change?

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From 2011 to 2014, Hivos hosted a series of E-dialogues on different aspects of ToC thinking. ToC practitioners from around the world gave contributions based on their experiences with ToC on various topics which resulted in final papers. This particular report seeks to define ToC.

A report that seeks to define ToC.

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Attachments e-dialogue_1_what_is_toc_thinking.pdf e-dialogo_1_que_es_el_pensamiento_toc.pdf